Its not at all hard to imagine that in this case, the person got suddenly kidnapped into a flying vehicle and stripped by some sort of non-human entities, was aware of it (which perhaps wasnt supposed to happen) and panicked, burned himself while trying to escape the vehicle or fight the captors, got a heart attack, and died. Overall, the whole dog connection is interesting, but not useful without other evidence. Tristan White, 4 Years, Missing November 22, 2006, Minnesota. The mysterious part is how the bodies got to where they were found. At least not in any of the cases where the person was found. There are also plenty of weird, and weirdly specific, clothing-related instructions in the fairy lore, like that in order to ward them off, you should turn your clothing inside out. Not surprisingly at all, these types of things are reported by alien abductees. This is the second documentary of Missing 411, and by far the better of the two. So far, as far as I know, Dave made the clusters map and the table of how far away small children were found. People make errors. Beyond a mere lack of explanation, Paulides has put together a profile which includes a specific list of factors, most of which tend to be present in all of these cases. There are so many comparisons that need to be made, and for that you need numbers. Director Michael DeGrazier Writers Michael DeGrazier David Paulides Stars David Paulides Beverly Messick Rob Messick James McGrogan - Missing 411. If these coincidences seem pedestrian or contrived to you, brace yourself. What an apt name, by the way, SADS. The reason why to wait for that could be that it is much less suspicious for a person to disappear while out drinking at night in the city than if they just left their house for no reason in the middle of the night. When all you understand couldnt have happened, it points to none of that. Thats probably why it correlates so much with cases that remain unexplained. Best format would be an interactive table online, where all types of data could be filtered and sorted with immediate visualization. Its also unusual for such high percentage of adults to remember what happened, but then not report it, to not even make anything up, which would be the only normal alternative explanation. Hunters have disappeared from wildlands without a trace for hundreds of years. For starters, in all of the cases where dogs couldnt pick up the scent and then the search was unsuccessful, the direction of causality could be that dogs not finding the scent should decrease the chance to find the missing person. Some have their remains found miles away from where they disappeared from, others are gone without a trace. There is some possibility, given the erratic and illogical behavior of some of the people who testified to what happened to them, that either a mental breakdown, or some sort of suggestion, hypnosis, or mind control technology are to blame. Especially considering that feeding grounds are a great place where to lie in wait for prey, and perhaps the best way to narrow down where people will be found in a big forest, and roughly when. This type of research is frequently used in not only social science in order to formulate hypotheses, or in this case a criminal profile. A home for weird ideas, future visions, and mad ramblings. Or, again, by someone who had no idea how to properly fasten the clothes. It covers the cases of multiple hunters who disappeared without a trace in the United States. If the person was targeted at home and lured out, it is virtually certain that that person was followed beforehand. Or its supposed to be, anyway. Missing 411- The Devil's in the Detail, 2014 This is a tough one because on one hand, I would like to believe Dave that trackers are by and large good enough to always find things like signs of struggle, but on the other hand, no one is perfect. Similarly, as I have heard someone theorize, you may want to remove their shoes first so that they cant run away from you very easily, or maybe youd steal their clothing so that they more quickly succumb to the elements if they somehow ran away from wherever youre holding them thats presumably some kind of shelter, base, or vehicle. It makes for good storytelling, and beyond that, its important to understand that everyone has a bias. I will discuss this in more detail when I get to related profile points like the role of bad weather. You may have noticed that in all that speculation, I may have cracked the case at most in the sense of creating some structural microtears in it. Paulides also keeps mentioning that he doesnt question the thoroughness of the searches or the dedication and skill of the searchers, or effectiveness of canines or helicopters with FLIR. Moreover, again ironically, there are many other both genetically and culturally much older groups. Apart from this (the fact that a personal attack is a logical fallacy, not a counterargument), if Dave incorrectly interprets some data point or a causal relation, its an error, not a crime. It's completely bizarre. For that reason, what you need to focus on are any exceptional, unique, or odd attributes that ideally didnt have to show up at all, or that would make someone a logical target for a predator, even if you dont fully understand what that predator is getting out of it. The reason why foul play was suspected in this case was that there were burn marks found on the body, which has happened in at least one Missing 411 urban case that Im aware of. Its not a reason to start hating a person and dismiss everything they have to say about everything else, its a reason to start talking to them. should always be prioritized over cases included on the basis of absence of evidence. The further questions are those of exact methodology. For the profile point, it means that more weight should be given to cases where the disappearance after separation was abrupt, but also that the feeling unwell or the wildly running into a forest-type separations should be looked at separately. On this note, I like Daves more recent approach of looking for almost-Missing 411 cases that are substantiated with hard evidence, like those included in the most recent documentary (featuring the Bigfoot audio recording and the predator photo). The forests that are not protected have much less regulated traffic, much lower biodiversity, are much more likely to be randomly cut down or otherwise messed with, and likely lack continuity to ancient times. Yosemite happens to have the highest total of Missing 411 cases of any National Park. Or at least not any more mysteriously than provably falling off a cliff, and thats the only case I could find. Cherry-picking in this context would be for example assuming that Bigfoot is taking all these people, and then looking for all the cases in which the missing person seems to have been mysteriously abducted, and ONLY such cases. But I myself am very interested in what could be called the science of coincidence, so lets talk about what coincidences may mean for a bit. And even if the name is just related to the remoteness, more remote and hard-to-get areas would mean the most difficult search environments. However, after they get lost, I would expect more people with colorful clothing to be found, as it cuts both ways. If some sort of targeted infrasound, microwave, or EM-based device is used, I bet you can make someone feel unwell at a distance, or make them hallucinate, or start behaving irrationally. Many serious paranormal investigators note the importance of the strange coincidence angle. But I think theres more to it than that. If there is someone out there with some kind of tech doing this, the tech clearly should involve remote brain or full-body scan capability (to ascertain hidden health issues or intelligence), perception altering, and memory editing. I especially recommend the most recent documentary, Missing 411: The Hunted, as I have never seen such great visualization of movement through an area, plus the cases selected for this documentary are some of the most bizarre and inexplicable there are. Exceptionally odd circumstances surround the disappearance. On November 15, 2015, Thomas Messick Sr., aged 82, an ex-paratrooper, walked into the woods south of Brant Lake in NY State, to hunt for deer and was never seen again. So, I would expect more people to get lost while wearing colorful clothing rather than natural shades or camo. After all, thats how a sudden health crisis or mental break would start. How do you keep getting bodies into water without it being seen, ever? On the cases I investigated some teams were 15-20 people strong with only one trained team leader. Its unlikely that all such witnesses could be successfully bribed or threatened with all of the impromptu recordings being destroyed. Which brings me to some practical reasons why you would undress a person that you have kidnapped. The concept of a holistic detective may be a fiction invented by Douglas Adams, but the interesting aspect of his science fiction ideas is that while crazy-sounding and hilarious, they are logically consistent and potentially realistic. This case was made famous by David Paulides in his documentary "Missing 411: The Hunted." In this film, Paulides applies his "checkpoints" to Tom Messick. The longer this series of deaths goes on globally, the less likely it is that its all just a result of someones bad or good luck. If anyone whos unable to travel many miles is found many miles away, especially if it is in a very short amount of time, its extremely suspicious. The U.K. study also suggests that the truly undeterminable deaths (called the sudden adult death syndrome there) can be incorrectly misdiagnosed as a different cause of death as much as two thirds of the time. And sure, tests have to be named something and there is a limited number of letters in the alphabet. Yes, under these specific circumstances, things like temporal displacement start sounding more likely than dozens of searchers missing an obvious corpse dozens of times. Open for submissions from anyone with something to say about where were headed or the nature of time or history. Furthermore, if I understand the abstract of the U.S. study correctly, 5% of autopsy reports in the U.S. list the cause of death as undetermined, even though the real number of undeterminable deaths is much lower than that. To me, if you get past the "oh-my-gosh-it's-horrible-what's-happening" surface feelings, folks might . This profile point doesnt sound necessarily unusual to me, since in any scenario, it has to be much more likely that a missing persons case will remain unexplained when the person disappeared while being alone and out of sight, while any intelligent perpetrator would wait for that moment. You have no reason to want their poop, specifically. Especially if the body wasnt even found by dedicated searchers, but by random hikers or passersby after the search was over. NR. The unusual death following a plot of a movie, an unusual plot, moves this coincidence to about a bit odd to the sixth power. Making an error on the part of Missing 411 perpetrators means that people wont go missing, that there will be evidence that will be interpreted as human crime (because what else would be a serious suspicion of the police in any scenario), or the person will see and report things that will make him or her sound mentally ill, and perhaps even diagnosed. This is perhaps the main area in which I would like Dave to release tables with exact percentages of just how common various traits among the missing people are, as the first step that needs to be taken in any serious study is to compare the composition of Daves sample with the standard distributions of variables in the normal demographics of the involved states or countries. Or it could be a sign of a design artifact, like when many bad guys in our fictional worlds contain Mal in their name, or how many hero names can be abbreviated as JC. Also, there are virtually no big predators in the Czech Republic that would kill a man. David Paulides presents the haunting true stories of hunters experiencing the unexplainable in the woods of North America. Paulides shares several perplexing mysteries and investigations. However, this only calls for a more thorough screening process for the cases to control for these possibilities. This clearly points to an intelligent perpetrator, and one who, inexplicably, doesnt have a very good grasp of how human clothing works. Making the target unconscious or suggestible immediately and wiping their memory after the fact would be desirable tactics for any type of predator, if they can pull it off. This invokes a motivation or mentality that either has something to do with genetics or culture, or a specific grudge. So, if theres any genetic program that deals with people who have German origins, it would have to be relatively recent and more likely to be motivated by something like Nazi mysticism, rather than any real scientific reasons. This would require for the dumping of the body to be virtually instantaneous (think teleportation), perfect optical stealth, Men in Black-like memory or perception control, etc. These could have involved a more invasive examination or procedure focused on the brain, and while they fortunately seem rare, especially to the extreme of cow mutilations, there are such cases. Missing 411: The Hunted, movie reviews . If you simulate a physical world and you want to interfere with it without rewriting natural laws all the time, you use any fuzziness or ambiguity within them, like chaotic probability, to essentially cheat. gryff42. Im personally not an expert on animal behavior, but as I was told by a biochemist, nothing in biology is 100%. If its correct, I bet that benevolent gods would use coincidence to aid us and trickster gods to amuse themselves. Thats how learning works. As for how useful chasing coincidences is as an intentional profile point, Dave allegedly was told that he should expect unbelievable coincidences on his quest to figure out this mystery. Or any or all of that. Maybe its not used on or as effective for children, either because it would certainly kill them, or because their brains arent fully developed yet. When picking mushrooms or berries, a group of people typically stays within hearing range, which means that all you need to do to not get lost is being able to shout (or shoot, I guess). This is one of the profile points that may have a completely mundane explanation, which could be proven. It would be an annoyingly good crime, however, as it is very difficult to prove such crime for the above-mentioned reasons. The main two cases involving multiple odd coincidences are the disappearance of Dennis Martin and the death of Elisa Lam. And it is what profiling is, in a way youre looking for cases that include selected elements. If we can already think of that, and undoubtedly would do it ourselves given the opportunity, its not crazy. While phenomena of this type are not strictly speaking ruled out by theoretical physicists, they would at the very least expect them to be substantially more rare, if they were to occur strictly naturally. The comparison actually needs to be made between the Missing 411 sample and whats normal for national park visitors in general, as well as it needs to be made between the Missing 411 sample and a control sample of non-Missing 411 missing people, ideally controlled by location (park vs. rural vs. urban). There are no stretches of known science required for someone to be able to create an underground or underwater base. Especially if youre an expert with answers. These coincidences may of course ultimately mean nothing, or they can have nothing to do with what caused the disappearance or death even if they by themselves are more than just a fluke of random chance. Coincidence is not the fact that something keeps repeating or happening in similar ways, it is a remarkable concurrence of events or circumstances without apparent causal connection. That obviously points to a kidnapping or assault attempt, though it doesnt clarify anything else. Ive been trying to find the best data that doesnt fit with the dominant paradigm of what is or isnt supposed to be physically possible. This is a suspiciously good record. In the documentary Missing 411 The Hunted, about Hunters who vanish he mentions how the FBI may show up to document the cases but as they don't investigate missing persons cases they are doing something in which they won't reveal. Some of these factors are inherently unusual, requiring at the very least a sudden psychotic break or a chain of bad decisions, while others are unusual through the rate at which they correlate with these cases, and yet others seem utterly impossible all by themselves. When a Smith family runs into a Smith family, its probably no big deal. At this point, I believe it is more about what direction I think should be taken in further analyzing the data. Im not a physicist, chemist, or an engineer, so I cant begin to speculate about any special properties of water or granite, though electrical ones certainly dont seem to be off the table. As for any data points or theories that may shed some light on why the clothing tends to be missing, the only explanations provided by the survivors of something like a Missing 411 incident are either that they removed it themselves (without understanding why and later regretting it), or the story of one little girl that a dog/wolf man ate some articles of her clothing. Perhaps the only type of thing that Dave tends to do thats somewhat less than ideal is that in his descriptions of the cases, he sometimes omits facts that point toward more mundane explanations. With all that said, it would be interesting to take all of the people with the German origin within the Missing 411 sample and check whether their ancestors come from all over Germany, or if they all come from a specific region or regions inside of Germany (or Austria or Switzerland). Former . A high-level analysis of patterns behind these strange disappearances. For starters, it keeps changing, on a whim, basically, so you have to constantly keep guessing how it works. On the most basic level, it makes a lot of sense for a predator of any type or motivation to pick either easy targets (like kids, the disabled, the elderly, or less well-armed hunters), or exceptional targets (for the thrill, challenge, or some kind of interrogative or research value), so these attributes should be expected.
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