Some of his backers are urging him to declare as early as May 11, to counter the creeping national narrative that former President Donald Trump is the overwhelming front-runner for the 2024 GOP nomination. There has been an influx of national firms in town over the last few days, said one of the Florida Republican operatives familiar with the meetings. Many Mexicans celebrate Mothers Day as a festive family event in which mothers are given cards, flowers, and presents. But Berthin noted that 22 of the 35 countries in the Americas are staying the democratic course, and four nations are even improving. Time and Date AS 19952023. [4], Claudia Sheinbaum, head of government of Mexico City, has been proposed as a potential successor to Lpez Obrador, on multiple occasions she has stated that "Mexico is ready to elect a female president" and enjoys the support of high ranking members of the governing MORENA party such as governors Layda Sansores of Campeche and Alfonso Durazo of Sonora. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. By gutting the INE, one of the countrys most revered and respected agencies, Lpez Obrador threatens to end the longest period of political stability and democratic governance in Mexicos modern historymuch of which has been owed to the watchdog role played by the INE. [3] Later, in government, on 19 March 2019, he signed a letter which stated In 2021, a consultation will be held to ask the citizens if they want me to continue governing or resign and rejected that the proposition of holding the recall conceals the intention to reelect me in 2024,[4] an accusation made by some opposition figures of the government. He was accused of violating an electoral tribunal prohibition on government officials campaigning for a recall vote in April by using a military plane to fly to the north of Mexico to speak about the vote. Decisions the Biden White House announces this week to manage the roiling U.S.-Mexico border could reverberate through Election Day, Nov. 5, 2024. Though it was called to commemorate Mexico's 1938 expropriation of the oil industry, many of those attending the rally Saturday agreed that it was the de-facto opening salvo to the 2024 elections that will choose the presidents successor. [5] Other potential candidates proposed by Lpez Obrador himself include Rosa Icela Rodrguez, Tatiana Clouthier, Juan Ramn de la Fuente, Roco Nahle, and Esteban Moctezuma. On June 6, Mexicans elect all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies, 15 governors, and local officials in 30 of 32 states in the single-round vote. (Required). For the poor, Morena is seen as a champion of their causes, working to end corruption, one of AMLOs catch phrases, although according to the World Justice Project index, Mexico has fallen nine points in just the last year to 113th place out of 139 countries in terms of fighting corruption. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which held power in Mexico under single-party rule until 2000, is expected to win between 63 and 75 seats - up from 48. DeSantis, long viewed as Trumps strongest Republican challenger in 2024, has traveled far outside Florida in recent weeks to raise his profile. In the lead-up to the 2024 elections, the recall vote has served as an opportunity to fire up his base in key battlegrounds. If he returns to Mexico, he could face prosecution. iStockphoto.com/Vepar5 Observe General Election Day Millions of Mexicans vote for their next president, as well as deputies and senators, on general election day. Join the conversation on this and other recent Foreign Policy articles when you subscribe now. The latest reforms were plan B, following a failed attempt at a sweeping constitutional reform last December that sought even more extreme measures to restrict electoral agencies and remove their independence. General elections are scheduled to be held in Mexico in July 2024. Download the FP mobile app to read anytime, anywhere. El sexenio de Lpez Obrador durar poco menos de 6 aos y la causa de esto, no es un 'complot', ms bien se debe a que as lo establece la ley en materia poltica-electoral tras una reforma aprobada el 10 de febrero de 2014 . Our countries are not isolated islands, said Lorenzo Crdova Vianello, director of INE. It may all boil down to whether or not the middle class has had enough of AMLO and his so-called Fourth Transformation (4T) politics, and whether they are ready to vote. Here's a glance at the hopefuls: Presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, of the MORENA party, gives a thumbs up to supporters at the end of his closing campaign rally at Azteca stadium in Mexico City, Wednesday, June 27 . The opposition, meanwhile, is struggling both to find an attractive message and to select someone who can compete against MORENAs candidate, whoever AMLO ends up choosing. But with President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obradors popularity still high and the opposition largely boycotting the event, the results of the referendum were almost assured. Lpez Obrador, whose grievances with the INE date back to his failed 2006 and 2012 presidential bids, said these changes would guarantee clean and free elections. With the next presidential election about two years away, the recall referendum also presented an opportunity for Mr. Lpez Obrador to test his partys strengths and weaknesses across the country, and determine who might be best positioned to succeed him. It is organized by the INE, triggered by 2.7 million signatures from 17 Mexican states that represented 3% of the electoral roll, following rules set by the Constitution of Mexico and the Federal Law of Revocation of Mandate. These polls were conducted after the federal law for recall elections and the referendum question were published. days of the Trump administration in terms of promoting decarbonization and clean energy and should be lauded for passing the (admittedly strangely titled) Inflation Reduction Act. [8], Despite being planned for 2021, the constitutional changes stipulated its realization one year later, in 2022. If you find an error, please let us know. In a moment that went viral, DeSantis was visibly unnerved by the questions and seemed unable to respond in a way that appeared prepared. Background [ edit] TALLAHASSEE, Fla. Florida Gov. Monday, March 6, 2023 Approval Tracker: Mexico's President AMLO By Carin Zissis Check support levels for Andrs Manuel Lpez Obradorand polling for potential successorsas he enters the last two years of his presidency. Do not translate text that appears unreliable or low-quality. Blas Ramos, 69, an electrical engineer, held up a sign reading Get out of Mexico, FBI, CIA, Gringos!. Hosted by Sabrina Tavernise. They are hypocrites, he said of U.S. politicians calling for such measures, because they don't do anything to reduce drug consumption in the United States. Language links are at the top of the page across from the title. President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador drew overwhelming support among those who cast ballots, but the recall referendum failed to achieve the required 40 percent threshold to be binding. They are also a signal to the Supreme Court that there is strong public opposition against the reforms. With that, on 4 February, the call for consultation was approved, causing the installation of 57,377 polling stations and 1.5 billion Mexican pesos available for the INE, less than half of the initially requested money. . Join FPs Ravi Agrawal for a discussion with FP columnist Steven A. Cook and Gonul Tol, the founding director of the Turkey program at the Middle East Institute. They discussed the IRA, cooperation with China, and this years forthcoming Conference of Parties climate summit in Dubai. looks to enter 2024 race, Disney sues Florida Gov. On Sunday, almost 18 percent of the electorate cast their ballot, far less than was needed for the result to become binding, making the outcome largely symbolic. The Florida governor is poised to launch his presidential exploratory committee next month. Mexican President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador has not yet reached the middle of his six-year term, but, quite unexpectedly, he has declared the search for his successor open. Nov. 5, 2024 . An imminent launch would help alleviate the compounding anxiety among supporters over DeSantis taking too long to jump into the fray and risking missing his moment. Mexican general election is not a public holiday in 2023. A pugnacious leftist, Lpez Obrador was the architect of the first so-called recall referendum in modern Mexico, describing it as vital to confirm his democratic mandate. This is the first national recall election in Mexico. , nine of the 35 countries in the Americas saw a decline in their scores since last year. From his presidential campaign, Lpez Obrador promised to hold a recall election two years into his eventual government. Add to that the Mexican components of political subtexts, conspiracy theories and dubious opinion-polling, it could be a huge leap to make a prediction a little less than three years out. All emphasized, however, that mid-May is the target. Criticism has mounted over Show morethe governments unpopular economic policies and its slow response to the Feb. 6 earthquake, which claimed more than 50,000 lives. Alberto Martnez, 59, said he hoped Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum would be the party's nominee. If possible, verify the text with references provided in the foreign-language article. Lpez Obrador thundered against the U.S. proposals. But Berthin noted that 22 of the 35 countries in the Americas are staying the democratic course, and four nations are even improving. Despite Low Turnout, Mexico Voters Back President to Stay in Office, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/11/world/americas/mexico-president-recall-election.html. For the particular modifications in the Constitution, the Chamber of Deputies voted 356 in favor and 84 against. China hawks spread their wings ahead of the 2024 election season. Join FPs Ravi Agrawal for a discussion with FP columnist Steven A. Cook and Gonul Tol, the founding director of the Turkey program at the Middle East Institute. Former Vice President MikePence andFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis are expected to enter the Republicanarenaas well both have made recent visits to Iowa, where the GOP's first primary contest will being held. (AMLO maintained in a press conference that the visit was part of Augusto Lpezs official duties.). The discussion with former secretary of state Kerry serves as a preview to FPs annual climate summit. DeSantis is the only Republican who can beat Trump. Brazil was able to regain its democratic footing following Bolsonaros aborted insurrection on. Graphs are temporarily unavailable due to technical issues. MEXICO CITY, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Mexican lawmakers on Wednesday approved a controversial overhaul of the body overseeing the country's elections, a move critics warn will weaken democracy. Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador won the presidential election on July 1, 2018 to become President-elect. [5] A candidacy by Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas, son of former presidential candidate Luis Donaldo Colosio Murrieta, has been floated around by the media.[5]. But they will likely have the opposite effect and help usher Lpez Obradors preferred successor into office. Among the worst-performing countries in the region are Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, and most recently, Haiti. Although the nations Supreme Court has said political parties cannot advertise the recall, Ms. Sheinbaum had spent weeks furiously campaigning in support of the vote, which was seen as a chance for the mayor to recover from the partys losses last year. Jan. 8. On June 5, 2022, Mexico held gubernatorial elections in six states: Durango, Tamaulipas, Aguascalientes, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, and Quintana Roo. In weakening democratic institutions, incumbents across the Americas in recent elections have made desperate attempts to strengthen or perpetuate their grasps on power. There are signs AMLO will go to great lengths to have a successor elected. But most agree that few of the presidential hopefuls can match the popularity of a president whose approval ratings are routinely above 60%. Its also concerning to note that major opposition figures who have stated an interest in competing in 2024 are facing investigations and criticism from government figures and entities controlled by AMLO or his allies. The Race Begins for Mexico's Next President By Ana Paula Ordorica | July 14, 2022 The president's attention is devoted to lining up a successor, but several figures in the ruling party want the nomination. Anyone can read what you share. But more than 90 percent of those who did turn out voted in favor of the president completing his six-year term, according to preliminary results from Mexicos electoral watchdog. MEXICO CITY Mexico is holding a first-of-its-kind presidential recall referendum this Sunday. Language links are at the top of the page across from the title. Only one major candidate has announced plans to run, and dynamics in each of the country's two major political parties continue to evolve. Claudia Sheinbaum is currently perceived as the presidents closest ally, and his favorite choice of successor after she has worked hand in hand with him for the past three decades. Biden was sworn into office Jan. 20, 2021. Lpez Obrador has claimed that Mexico doesn't produce fentanyl something most experts disagree with and that the U.S. has a fentanyl problem because American families don't hug their kids enough. Ordorica is a journalist and analyst based in Mexico City. [7] In December, once endorsed by 17 state congresses, the decree was published in the Official Journal of the Federation. The GOP field is expected to get fairly crowded. But it is precisely this independence that hinders Ebrards chances of being selected by the president. By refusing negotiation over Chinas rise, the United States might be making conflict inevitable. Polls have been carried out by various organisations and aggregated by the Americas Society Council of the Americas. He told me in a recent interview that he believes he is being held responsible for the partys 2021 loss in local elections in Mexico City. Policymakers in Washington dont agree about much, but theres a striking bipartisan consensus on one issue: China. PUERTO VALLARTA, Jalisco Leftist Mexican President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador (AMLO) is now halfway through his six-year term, and has promised to not try to stay in office when that term expires on Nov. 30, 2024. Join in-depth conversations and interact with foreign-policy experts with. They discussed the IRA, cooperation with China, and this years forthcoming Conference of Parties climate summit in Dubai. Watchthe full discussion on video orreada lightly edited and condensed transcript, exclusive to FPInsiders. Nikki Haley, andVivek Ramaswamy, a wealthy biotech entrepreneur have also thrown their hat in the ring. Reporters asked DeSantis about his lagging poll numbers. Monday, February 21st is day number 52 of the 2022 calendar year with -1 year, -2 months, -8 days until Presidents' Day 2022. Some of these polls asked if the respondents approved of the president, not necessarily their stance on the referendum. You may opt out at any time. For Rudman, the parallels between Mexicos current institutional reforms and the early days of some of the established authoritarian regimes in Latin America today, including Venezuela and Nicaragua, are too glaring to ignore. The reforms arent a done deal yet: The Mexican Supreme Court still has a say. What will it look like? Lopez Obrador's successor is scheduled to be elected in June 2024. A Morning Consult poll out Tuesday had Trump with a 37 percentage-point lead on DeSantis, his biggest margin to date. Do you agree that Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador, President of the United Mexican States, should have his mandate revoked due to loss of confidence or that he should continue in the Presidency of the Republic until his period concludes? Keri Russell gets Drexel furniture, but no Senate confirmation hearing. Ricardo Monreal, the highest-ranking senator from MORENA also has ambitions to be the partys presidential candidatebut he wasnt invited. The best example of the authenticity of his Good Neighbor policy was his respect for our nation's sovereignty," Lpez Obrador said of Roosevelt. Presidential elections are held in the United States every four years. FP contributors top titles to make sense of the country ahead of its most important election, Report: Its a strategy to put the I.N.E. Lpez Obradors Reforms Threaten Mexican Democracy. Our new issue explores the consequences for climate change, trade, the China-U.S. competition and more. We have to expect continued trouble for Mexico. (Anaya denies the charges and notes he was no longer in the Chamber of Deputies when the vote took place.) A Trump-Biden rematch may be in order for 2024: both candidates have announced they are running to hold the oval office. The vote has flummoxed even some of DeSantis closest Republican supporters, who say a focus on things like Walt Disney World are hurting him in the polls and with prospective supporters. Delivered Wednesday. 2022 Mexican presidential recall referendum, LXIII Legislature of the Mexican Congress, "Mxico: Autoridad electoral aprueba convocatoria para revocacin de mandato", "Mexican presidential recall referendum wins enough support: poll body", "El pueblo pone, el pueblo quita: AMLO propone revocacin de mandato", "Revocacin de mandato no es reeleccin: presidente AMLO", "AMLO rechaza buscar reeleccin en Mxico y se compromete a referendo revocatorio", "Senado aprueba Revocacin de Mandato; "huele a reeleccin", acusan panistas", "Publican en el DOF disposiciones sobre consulta popular y revocacin de mandato", "AMLO plantea adelantar revocacin de su mandato para 2021", "Lpez Obrador anuncia referendo revocatorio de su mandato", "Revocacin de mandato: Monreal empuja extraordinario para modificar la pregunta", "Impide oposicin nuevo periodo extra para ley de revocacin", "Lpez Obrador resiste el desgaste y mantiene una aprobacin del 59% a las puertas de la revocacin de mandato", "Si hoy fuera la consulta de revocacin de mandato, AMLO sigue o se va? People from Morena itself have said that they know its unconstitutional, but they dont care. The INE, which started preparations in August 2021,stated that there was a lack of resources for the consultation organization, causing it to challenge the budget approved by the Chamber of Deputies and ask the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation for their stance. What are Mexicans voting on? On both sides of the aisle, there is agreement that its past time tShow moreo get tough on Beijing. Anti-migrant policies delayed rescue after a shipwreck that killed 90 people. Watchthe full discussion on video orreada lightly edited and condensed transcript, exclusive to FPInsiders. [10] To this end, later in that month, the leader of the senators for the governing party Morena, Ricardo Monreal vila, signaled that he would look for an extraordinary period of the Congress to address the regulation of the recall process with the proposal Federal Law of Revocation of Mandate and seeking to eliminate the phrase because of loss of confidence from the proposal. After that, the party's candidate is likely to take center stage. According to Freedom Houses latest Freedom in the World report, nine of the 35 countries in the Americas saw a decline in their scores since last year. Here's what you should know: Voting rights in the United States: A state-by-state analysis, Will Biden win? And I think what is happening right now in Mexico, which is not an isolated case, there are a lot of links with what is happening in American democracy, or Brazilian democracy, or even in other parts of the world.. She was elected mayor as a feminist with a progressive agenda, but in trying to please AMLO, Sheinbaum has changed her tune, initially dismissing feminist street protests (an attitude in line with the presidents approach to discontent with his government). The backsliding would be returning to something where you guarantee that you close a space for opposition parties, Cruz said. But theres also an important strand of criticism from economists arguing that however well-meaning the Biden administrations policies may be, they are destined to backfire because they are essentially protectionist and could lead to a dangerous subsidies race. And other countries are operating, at present, without notable interruptions, including Argentina, which will hold federal elections later this year, as well as Uruguay, which has elections in 2024. Meanwhile, AMLO is already parading around his two potential replacements, the current mayor of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum, seen with little backbone as she parrots his mantras daily to the degree of repeating his key phrases, a loyalty that has earned her the presidents favor, and the other front runner, Foreign Relations Secretary Marcelo Ebrard, also a former Mexico City mayor, who has quite a bit of baggage surrounding shady contract management on some major construction projects like the capitals Line 12 Metro, which collapsed in May, killing 25 people and leaving other permanently maimed. [6] In November, the Chamber of Deputies also approved it in general, with 372 votes in favor and 75 against. Mexican general election does not occur in 2023. Voting lines were several blocks long at a poll in Mexico City. The presidents critics pointed to the low overall turnout as anything but a mandate for Mr. Lpez Obrador and his efforts to transform the country. Turkeys leader for the last two decades, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, could be defeated in the countrys next presidential election, scheduled for May 14. What does President Luiz Incio Lula da Silvas return mean for Latin America and its role on the world stage? It does not matter too terribly much, either, who the opposition candidate will be. MEXICO CITY Pitched by the president as a landmark exercise for Mexicos democracy, Sundays recall referendum gave voters the chance to remove their head of state from office for the first time. The members of the legislature elected on this date will be the first allowed to run for re-election in subsequent elections.
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