We and our partners use data for Personalised ads and content, ad and content measurement, audience insights and product development. Jason Kao For the open Senate seat in Ohio, J.D. George Santos, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent New Yorks Third Congressional District. A lot of outlets do election ratings. 2022 Prediction We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. All rights reserved. It seems as if Democrats arent really confident that Bidens economic agenda is really a selling point going into 2024. Representative Tom Malinowski, a second-term incumbent, conceded his race for re-election to his Republican opponent, Tom Kean Jr. Note: Includes special elections held during year of election or during previous year. . Nov. 9, 2022, Majority-Hispanic counties in Florida voted to reelect Gov. Table 5: Model predictions for 2022 Senate elections. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. Overall, incumbents won 87% of their races. Theres no way that theyre going to be able to reposition him over the next year and a half. Beto ORourke performed better than expected in these majority-Hispanic counties. U.S. House Calif. 3 R+3 36% Calif. 9 D+17 Democratic candidates won the large majority of contests in 2012 and 2018 while Republicans won the large majority of contests in 2014, 2016, and 2020. NYT Graphics Visit. The results in Table 2 show that the 3 variable model was quite accurate, explaining 84% of the variance in the outcomes of individual Senate contests. Current Senate Albert Sun We just got all the way up to 55 percent in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Depending on how many people vote Democrat in New Orleans, there is an outside chance for this seat to flip to the Democrats. Heres where we think votes remain. 2020 comparison maps exclude places where third-party candidates won more than 5 percent of the vote. His Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, is backed by Donald Trump. But this work can get done during the campaign. November 8 Abortion rights were put to the test in the midterm elections. It's one thing to tell you who's likely to win POLITICO's Election Forecast also tells you why. Particularly in the 2 decisive Georgia Senate runoffs held in early January 2021, Donald Trumps visibility and highly publicized claims of widespread voting fraud involving absentee ballots may have served to motivate Democratic voters while suppressing turnout among some Republican voters concerned that their votes would not be accurately counted. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Finally, there is a clear midterm effect on Senate elections, with candidates from the party occupying the White House experiencing an average penalty of 5.4 points of margin. California, Michigan, Kentucky and Montana also have abortion referendums on the ballot. NYT Graphics Here are my predictions how the races will pan out and some points of caution Democrats should note to secure the Senate in 2022. Weve made future-oriented investments in infrastructure and tackling climate change. 2 References. In these midterms, New York is an unexpected battleground. Democrats need to go on offense on these issues. As more races are called, the uncertainty around these estimates will narrow. Lauren Boebert, incumbent in Colorados 3rd district, is in an unexpectedly close race in what was considered a safe Republican district. Senate Copyright The Economist Newspaper Limited 2022. This has to be the driving goal of the party this cycle. Senate 2022 . Three independent candidates Bernie Sanders (VT), Angus King (ME) and Greg Orman (KS) are classified as Democrats. Click here. See the rest of our predictions. RCP House Map Race Changes. Voters in Kentucky narrowly rejected an amendment to the State Constitution that would have said there is no right to abortion in their state. Box 400806 Charlottesville, VA 22904. Republicans have won in four of five New York tossup seats, and the Republican candidate is ahead in the fifth. WebTexas Senate: With Democrats on Defense, Lone Star State Is a Reach Jessica Taylor March 29, 2023 Members Only Senate Overview The Looming Senate GOP Primary Wars Jessica Taylor March 7, 2023 Members Only Michigan Senate Michigan Senate: With Slotkin Announcement, Democrats Look to Avoid Primary Jessica Taylor February 28, DeSantis outperformed Trump in Florida in every county that has nearly finished counting votes. Voters in Vermont decided in favor of including abortion protections in their state constitution. Yet you also acknowledge that Democrats are underwater on the economy. Clickme! Districts where the margin of victory was under 10%: Language links are at the top of the page across from the title. Andrew Fischer Mandela Barnes, and there is a close contest for governor. Its important that our goal is not just to win the election but to have it feel like a profound repudiation of MAGA. The results are displayed in Table 2. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. In several of these races, the discrepancy between the predicted and actual results was quite large. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. One of the tightest governors races in the country is between Gov. In Arizona, Democrat and former astronaut Mark Kelly defeated the appointed Republican incumbent, Martha McSally, while in Georgia, Democrat Jon Ossoff, a documentary filmmaker and former congressional aide, defeated Republican incumbent David Perdue, and Democrat Raphael Warnock, pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, defeated appointed Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler. Maggie Astor Kevin Drum (July 3, 2021). Possibly. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a tough race against Republican Adam Laxalt. These results suggest that Republicans have a slight edge in the 2022 Senate elections when it comes to potential seat swing based on the fundamentals in these Results Read more Pennsylvania's new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her. Janet Mills of Maine. Redistricting will change everything. Its about 15 months for the mid-term elections in the United States. Maggie Astor We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. An even greater discrepancy between predicted and actual results occurred in the 2017 Alabama special election in which ultra-conservative former state Supreme Court justice Roy Moore won a runoff primary against appointed incumbent Luther Strange to win the Republican nomination. . Wisconsins Senate race is leaning toward Senator Ron Johnson, his chambers most endangered Republican incumbent, according to our estimates. Eight of those counties that voted for Biden in 2020 shifted 16 points to the right in the race for governor, and 12 points in the Senate race. GOP Gov. All 3 predictors had highly significant effects, with state presidential partisanship having the strongest influence. The Associated Press has not called New Yorks race for governor but Gov. Heres how they performed when compared with the 2020 presidential candidates. Well also be watching competitive House races in N.C.-13 and Ohio-9. Heres how it works The lines below include an estimate of uncertainty. Polls just closed in 19 states and Washington, D.C. Does the Democratic Party have a liberal cultural answer to DeSantis? Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. Our Senate Election Forecast has been upgraded into a Live Election Forecast that will predict every Senate race in the Nation using the latest data from the election results. Senate Polls Nov. 8, 2022, The Timess election forecast is now running. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket makes the math slightly easier for a Republican upset. It could be awhile before all votes are counted. Gretchen Whitmer's poll numbers have been more durable than other Democrats'. Continue with Recommended Cookies. Throughout the 2022 elections, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg offered up a counterintuitive diagnosis: Confident GOP predictions of a red wave Nov. 8, 2022, Arizona has multiple races featuring Republicans who have questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election. Nov. 9, 2022, John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate for Senate, won by a smaller margin than Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate for governor. Based on New York Times/Siena College polls in four states. John Fetterman. Everyone covered the Democratic Party being in a defensive crouch last year. These are our estimates for which party will win control of the Senate, and the estimated number of seats won by each party. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. On Monday, we will launch our Georgia Senate Runoff Predictions. Four of the 6 contests that are expected to be very competitive are currently held by Democrats (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire) while the other 2 (North Carolina and Pennsylvania) are currently held by Republicans. RealClearPolitics - 2022 Election Maps - Battle for the . 3 See also. Last updated on November 17th 2022 at 6:30 am. While Democrats won 94% of contests in states won by the Democratic presidential candidate, Republicans won only 86% of contests in states won by the Republican presidential candidate. ADHD is an illness, not a lifestyle. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. Maura Healey, the newly elected Democratic governor of Massachusetts is the first openly lesbian woman to be elected governor in the United States. Were tracking the latest polling for the 2024 Primary - both if Joe Biden decides to run for a second term, and if he opts out. Web2022 United States Senate elections 2020 November 8, 2022 December 6 ( Georgia runoff) 2024 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51 [a] seats needed for a majority Results of the elections: Democratic gain Democratic hold Republican hold No election Rectangular inset ( Oklahoma ): both seats up for election Republicans' late primary complicates their quest to oust Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in the nation's smallest swing state. In 2020, Virginias early vote for president favored Republicans, while Pennsylvanias skewed toward Democrats. Web1 Predictions. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. Tonight: follow live results and our forecast from Georgia as the final Senate seat in the 2022 midterm elections is decided. If a Trump cheerleader is the chosen candidate, it is a Democrat guaranteed victory. 2 References. Senate 2022 State Projections Race to the WH We analyzed every House, Senate and gubernatorial seat to determine who we think will win the 2022 midterm elections. Representative Sean Patrick Maloney has conceded defeat to Mike Lawler, a first-term Republican state assemblyman. Nov. 9, 2022, The feared Democratic collapse along the Rio Grande didnt materialize. Can they turn that around? This is not a time to be defensive. * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. Nov. 9, 2022, J.D. The outcomes of the 6-8 contests that will most likely determine control of the U.S. Senate in the next Congress will depend to a large extent on the individual candidates and their campaigns. Politics: Midterm Elections 2022 Senate Predictions For example, in the 2012 Indiana Senate election, the Republican candidate was favored by just over 7 points but the Democratic candidate won by almost 6 points. Theres no question that our orientation this cycle should be around geographic and demographic expansion. Maggie Astor Brian Kemp gained more votes compared to Trump in 2020 all across Georgia, beating Stacey Abrams by a more than seven-point margin. Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their states presidential leanings. All rights reserved. In Indiana, a House race in the 1st district leans Democratic, but, if the seat were to flip, it could be an early sign of a red wave. *. You know you are right when you are hated by the left and the right. 465 Crestwood DriveP.O. Dont punish people for it. Tonight, our election forecast will show live estimates for which party is favored to win control in the Senate and House. Our House forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. The full forecaster analysis can be found here (subscription required). 0 seconds of 4 minutes, 49 seconds Volume 90%. Click here to change which version of the model you see. Republicans would need just two tossup seats beyond what they are favored to win. The facts are that the country is better off. New Hampshire- It is a state of predominantly moderate whites. *Alaskas Senate race uses ranked-choice voting. 1.2 Close races. Mourdock gained national notoriety for his comment that when a woman becomes pregnant as a result of rape, it is something that God intended, and went on to lose the general election to a moderate Democrat, Joe Donnelly. Laura Kelly is Democrats' most vulnerable incumbent on the ballot this year. Manage Settings Now the the crux of this article these are states that can go either way. 2024 Senate races. Follow along here The latest Last updated Nov. 8, 2022 Our final forecast for the Senate is a toss-up, with Republicans slightly favored over Democrats. The most competitive races, with predicted margins of under 5 points, are expected to be in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Nate Cohn Dont expect quick results in either race; officials in Alaska wont finish counting absentee ballots for about two weeks. John Fetterman has been locked in a bitter contest against Mehmet Oz, the Republican celebrity doctor. Nate Cohn , Don Bacon, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Nebraskas Second Congressional District. Based on the results of my analysis of Senate contests between 2012 and 2020 in Table 2, I calculated the models expected results of all 35 Senate contests taking place this year. Heres who won The greater success of Democratic candidates in states won by the opposing partys presidential candidate was crucial to their ability to win a slight majority of Senate races during these years. In North Carolinas Senate race, Representative Ted Budd, a Trump-endorsed Republican, is very likely to win, according to our estimates. Nov. 8, 2022, Six of the eight most competitive Senate races are in states that did not call a winner in the presidential race until after election night: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. For that to be the case, Rosenberg must be right about his core idea: Despite pundits tendency to overestimate MAGA, its rise has given Democrats a major opening to expand their coalition. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, a Democrat, won a runoff election to defeat Herschel Walker, a Trump-backed Republican and former football star. RealClearPolitics - 2022 Election Maps - Battle for the Arizonas closely watched races for Senate and governor remained too close to call in the state, where 400,000 ballots in Maricopa County await counting. Though Republicans have put forward weak candidates in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, the wind is behind their backs heading into November 8. Two of the biggest discrepancies between actual and predicted vote margins involved the same candidate: West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin. Web1 Predictions. Polls Underestimated. Republican Adam Laxalt is ahead in GOP-commissioned polling, though independent surveys still give Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto a chance. The predictions for races expected to be relatively close, with predicted margins of less than 10 points, were only correct a little over two-thirds of the time. Nov. 8, 2022, These charts show how the reported vote margin (the dashed line) compares with our estimated final margin (the solid line, surrounded by bands of uncertainty) over time. In both 2012 and 2018, Manchin far outperformed the expected vote for a Democratic candidate in a state that Donald Trump carried twice by enormous margins. The Cook Political Report has updated its 2022 Senate outlook, with four races seen as more competitive than earlier in the year. Today, Democrats control the U.S. Senate by the slimmest of margins Vice President Kamala Harris serves as the tiebreaking vote in a chamber thats divided 50-50. Seth Magaziner, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Rhode Islands Second Congressional District. Vance in the returns, but almost all of the results are early votes, which we expect to disproportionately favor Democrats. Lazaro Gamio The other interesting finding in Table 3 is that the large majority of erroneous predictions, 12 of 16, involved Democratic victories in contests that Republicans were expected to win. More than 200 Republicans who questioned or denied the 2020 election results have won in the midterms so far. See our election dashboard and find your The results are displayed in Table 5. Figure 1 displays the distribution of Senate contests based on the margin of victory for winning candidate. fresh out of the oven. However, there was a noticeable discrepancy between the success rates of Republican and Democratic candidates in states won by their partys presidential candidate. Lazaro Gamio Heres what the vote count could look like this year. Its my view that the energy that generated this anti-woke boomlet on the right is dissipating. at POLITICO, To retain control of the House, Democrats must win 46 of these seats (after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily). Reporting by Grace Ashford, Maggie Astor, Michael C. Bender, Sarah Borell, Sarah Cahalan, Emily Cochrane, Nick Corasaniti, Jill Cowan, Catie Edmondson, Reid J. Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Lalena Fisher, Trip Gabriel, Katie Glueck, J. David Goodman, Blake Hounshell, Shawn Hubler, Annie Karni, Maya King, Stephanie Lai, Lisa Lerer, Jonathan Martin, Patricia Mazzei, Alyce McFadden, Jennifer Medina, Azi Paybarah, Mitch Smith, Tracey Tully, Jazmine Ulloa, Neil Vigdor and Jonathan Weisman; production by Andy Chen, Amanda Cordero, Alex Garces, Chris Kahley, Laura Kaltman, Andrew Rodriguez and Jessica White; editing by Wilson Andrews, Kenan Davis, William P. Davis, Kennedy Elliott, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney and Karen Workman. By 9 p.m., the polls will have closed in a majority of states. Democrats have the potential to flip 6 seats in the Senate in 2022. Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov. In Colorado, a measure to decriminalize certain psychedelics is close but yet to be decided. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth was first elected in 2016, defeating Republican incumbent Mark Kirk. Heres where we think votes remain. Kennedy Elliott *The vice president, Kamala Harris, breaks 50-50 ties for the Democrats. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022 | CNN Politics Figure 1: Scatterplots of seat change by predicted seat change in House and Senate midterm elections, 1946-2018 Source: Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms By doing that, hes going to create a permission structure for the whole Democratic Party to follow him. Its giving Yesli Vega, the Republican candidate, an edge over incumbent Abigail Spanberger, though this could be temporary. GOP Rep. David Rouzer is coasting to reelection. RacetotheWH has in-depth predictions for every Governor, Senate and House Race, polling for the 2024 primaries, and a Bidens approval rating tracker. It remains to be seen whether any of the current crop of GOP candidates, many of whom are running as staunch Trump loyalists and some of whom have endorsed the Big Lie of the stolen 2020 election, will suffer a similar fate. Weve demonstrated that in the current political environment, we can grow the coalition. Read more Nov. 9, 2022, Alaska has competitive races for both the Senate and the House, neither of which is a straightforward Democrat-versus-Republican affair. Read more Forecasting the 2022 Midterm Election with the However, with the current breakdown of the Democratic Party, that is vested in the hands of the Democrat senator from West Virginia Joe Manchin. The Democrats should not focus much attention on these states and instead focus on the other states assuming they are on a mission to secure 60 seats, to prevent filibustering of bills. Ron DeSantis tends to fare better against President Biden among college-educated Whites than Donald Trump does. Even though Democratic presidential candidates won the national popular vote in all 3 presidential elections between 2012 and 2020, Republican presidential candidates carried 93 of the 174 states with Senate contests during these years a success rate of just over 53%. WebBattle for the Senate 2022. Albert Sun Abortion rights fired up Democratic voters, and MAGAs hostility toward democracy and embrace of Donald Trump drove swing voters away from the GOP, puncturing the red-wave fantasy. The Timess election results pages are produced by Michael Andre, Aliza Aufrichtig, Kristen Bayrakdarian, Neil Berg, Matthew Bloch, Vronique Brossier, Irineo Cabreros, Sean Catangui, Andrew Chavez, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Avery Dews, Asmaa Elkeurti, Tiffany Fehr, Andrew Fischer, Lazaro Gamio, Martn Gonzlez Gmez, Will Houp, Jon Huang, Samuel Jacoby, Jason Kao, Josh Katz, Aaron Krolik, Jasmine C. Lee, Vivian Li, Rebecca Lieberman, Ilana Marcus, Alicia Parlapiano, Jaymin Patel, Marcus Payadue, Matt Ruby, Rachel Shorey, Charlie Smart, Umi Syam, Jaime Tanner, James Thomas, Urvashi Uberoy, Ege Uz, Isaac White and Christine Zhang. Is the challenger struggling to raise money? These differences in results reflected differences in the partisan makeup of the 3 classes of Senate seats as well as differences in the national political environment at the time of each election. Much like the safe Republican states, the following states are a sure-shot for Democrats. Updated Every Day with the Latest Polling. . That was mainly because Republicans currently hold 21 of the 35 seats that are up for election in 2022. Maggie Astor The data in Table 1 indicate that a couple of the key factors influencing the outcomes of Senate contests during these years were incumbency and state presidential partisanship. One of the most highly watched and dissected and forecastedbattles during the 2022 midterm elections is the Senate race. Follow the latest election results here . Nov. 9, 2022, Maryland and Missouri voted to legalize recreational marijuana for people 21 and older, while voters in Arkansas, North Dakota and South Dakota rejected similar measures. Cook Political Updates 2022 Senate Forecast GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. Jen Kiggans, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Virginias Second Congressional District. Redistricting will change everything. Rep. Ted Budd of North Carolina, a Trump-backed conservative, beat Cheri Beasley, a Democrat, to capture retiring Senator Richard Burr's seat. You deserve to hear our thinking. In contrast, predictions for races with predicted margins of 10 points or more were correct over 95% of the time. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. That could all change Tuesday. Unfortunately, the 60 seat goal is out of reach. The 2022 Senate Forecast uses a sophisticated model that includes polling, historic trends, and fundraising to create its projections. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has opened a lead over Republican Blake Masters. The more data we have, the more influence election day data has on the forecast. Odds displayed in the graphics may not match numeric odds due to rounding. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, a Democrat, won a tough re-election race against her Republican rival, Tudor Dixon. Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, a Democrat, was elected to a third term, holding off a strong challenge from a Republican newcomer. The Associated Press also provides estimates for the share of votes reported, which are shown for races for which The Times does not publish its own estimates. Web2022. Nov. 8, 2022, In Kentucky, voters will decide whether to approve a constitutional amendment that would effectively ensure the implementation of a near-total abortion ban.
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